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MORTAL LOCKS
MMMRTALRRTTAALLLOCKSLLOOCCKKSS

Make your pick. Climb the standings. Take the pot.

You lock in a pick against the real sportsbook line — up to one a day, but you're never on the hook to play daily. Make at least one pick every two weeks and you stay in the hunt all season.

One $50 buy-in gets you in for the whole season — that's the only money on the line. No betting each game, no chasing losses. Just picks, standings, and bragging rights.

15%
2ND
80%
1ST
5%
3RD

1st takes the lion's share.

The OGs will tell you to put real money on your Mortal Lock. That part's up to you.

If you think you can read a game better than the people around you, prove it.

Get In The Game

How To Play

1
What a normal day looks like

Say it's Sunday and you like the Ravens to beat the Browns comfortably, so you take Ravens −6.5 for 1 unit. The moment you lock it, it's yours — nobody else in the group can take the Ravens' spread in that game. Baltimore wins by 10 and your pick hits: you gain units and climb the standings. They win by 3, or lose outright, and it misses — you drop the unit. That's the whole loop: one pick, auto-graded on the real line, win or lose on the final score.

2
One pick a day, max

Lock in one pick per day — that's the ceiling. You're never required to play daily, but you can.

3
First tap owns it

A side belongs to whoever takes it first. Once you've got the Ravens' spread in that game, nobody else in the league can have it — and you can't take both sides of the same bet either.

Full Rules

Est. 2021 · Updated for 2026-2027 season

What counts as a pick

§1

A “mortal lock” is a single pick you stake in front of the group. Once you place it, it is yours — nobody else can take that same pick for that game. Every pick is graded automatically from real sportsbook lines, and the results tally up against everyone else.

↑ Index

Sports and markets

§2
  • Sports: NFL and NCAA FBS football only.
  • Markets: spread, total (over/under), moneyline.
  • Not allowed: second-half bets, player props, futures, parlays, alternate lines.
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The moneyline cap

4
Units are your stake

Every pick rides a number of units — your confidence dial. A bigger number wins more and loses more; it doesn't change how the pick grades, only what it moves.

5
Picks lock before kickoff

You can change your mind right up until 60 minutes before kickoff. After that the pick is sealed and the line you took is the line you are graded on.

6
Cancelling costs you the clock

Cancel and your side opens back up to everyone immediately — and you can't submit a new pick, on any game, for 20 minutes. Every cancel restarts it.

7
The buy-in is the only money

Units are the scoreboard, not dollars. Your $50 buy-in is the only money you ever put up — it doesn't change whether a pick wins or loses, and you're never wagering game to game. The pot is everyone's buy-ins, and the final standings decide who takes it.

8
Pick your poison

Spread, total, or moneyline. Every pick is graded against the real sportsbook line.

9
Auto-graded against the line

Your pick grades itself against the sportsbook number — win, loss, or push — graded within about 15 minutes of the final. No self-reporting, no arguing. The standings update automatically for everyone to see. One exception: if the two score feeds disagree about a final and it would change how a pick lands, that game waits for a commissioner's call.

10
All season long

The competition runs from opening kickoff through the Super Bowl. Every graded pick moves you up or down. Standings settle after the final whistle of the season, and the pot pays out 80/15/5 to the top three.

11
Two rules keep it honest

Two separate rules do different jobs, and neither asks you to play daily. Go 14 days without a pick and you start losing units — you can't disappear and freeze a lead while everyone chasing keeps taking variance. And cashing a top-3 prize takes at least 20 graded picks on the season — you can't take the pot off a handful of picks.

Late entry is open through October 31. Full $50 buy-in and the 20-graded-pick floor apply. Join by Tuesday, September 15 and you start at zero. After that you start behind, by how late you are: −2U if your buy-in is recorded September 16–22, −4U September 23–29, and −8U from September 30 on. That's the cap.

Nobody takes a cut. Every dollar paid in is paid out.

12
The action lives on Discord too

Every lock auto-posts to #picks-feed the moment it's submitted, so the whole group sees what everyone's on — and the Guitar Pick makes picks of its own. Live standings, polls, and more are coming to the server all season. That's where the trash talk happens. Join the server →

§3

Moneyline favorites may not be priced shorter than −130. So −130 is fine, −131 and heavier is not. Ineligible moneylines never even reach the board. Spreads and totals have no price cap.

Keeps locks actually risky — no taking −300 Chiefs and calling it a week.

↑ Index

Units (your confidence dial)

§4

Every pick is worth 1, 2, or 3 units. More units means more confidence, and a bigger swing on your record either way.

Wins are odds-weighted — the price you took determines the payout. Losses are flat: you lose exactly the units you wagered, regardless of price. The standings rank by net units, not win-loss record.

What a winning pick returns, by the price you took
If you betWin paysLoss
1U at −110 (standard spread/total)+0.91U−1.00U
1U at −130 (max ML favorite)+0.77U−1.00U
1U at +100 (true pick'em)+1.00U−1.00U
1U at +150+1.50U−1.00U
1U at +200+2.00U−1.00U
1U at +300+3.00U−1.00U

Multiply by 2 or 3 if you bump your units. Example: a 3U pick at +200 that hits is worth +6.00U.

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When you can submit

§5
  • The board opens at 8:00 AM Denver time (10:00 AM Eastern). A game opens earlier if it kicks off within two hours — whichever comes first. The window applies only to games kicking off that same day.
  • A game stops taking new picks at its own kickoff.
  • You may only submit one pick per day, always — including bowl days and playoff Saturdays.
  • You can edit or cancel a pick until 60 minutes before kickoff. After that it is locked, even though the game has not started. An edit changes your units — to change your side, cancel and pick again.
  • Cancelling immediately frees up that game / market / side for someone else to grab — and starts a 20-minute cooldown before you can submit any new pick, on any game, restarting with every cancel.
  • Cancelling posts to the feed, the same as making a pick does.
  • Editing and cancelling need a paid seat, just like making a pick.
  • Every time on the site is shown in your own timezone, with the zone named — one kickoff reads 7:00 PM in Denver and 9:00 PM in Boston, each labelled with that reader's own zone, because it is the same moment. Slates are a league day, and that day is Mountain: a board is named for its day rather than dated at you, so a late kickoff can land after midnight where you are and still count as that slate's pick.
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The “no two on the same bet” rule

§6

If one person takes Chiefs −3.5, no one else can take Chiefs on the spread for that game — even if the line moves to −6.5 later. The identity of a pick is (game, market, side), not the specific number.

Two people can take opposite sides of the same market, though — one on Chiefs, one on Bengals is totally fine.

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How picks get graded

§7
  • Win / Loss is computed from final scores, graded within about 15 minutes of the final.
  • Push (spread or total lands exactly on the line, or a regulation tie on moneyline) — zero units change hands.
  • Postponed or canceled game voids the pick — zero units.
  • Picks are graded against the line you took, not whatever the line is at kickoff. Lock in Lions −3, you are graded on −3.
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The pot — 80/15/5

§8

The pool is every recorded buy-in for the season. It pays the top three of the final season standings:

  • 1st — 80% of the pool
  • 2nd — 15%
  • 3rd — 5%

If fewer than three members qualify, the pot is split between the places that are paid, in the same proportions — and the whole pot is still paid out. One qualifier takes all of it; two split it in the same 80-to-15 ratio — or evenly, if they tie.

Ties are decided on units to the cent. Qualified members who tie share the money for the places they occupy, split equally.

A tie of two qualified members occupies two places and shares the money for both, as far as the three places that pay: two tied for 3rd share 3rd’s money and nothing below it.

Exact-cents policy: every place below the top rounds down to the cent, and the leftover cents go to the top place. A shared place splits evenly, and any odd cents go to the members listed first — highest win percentage, then alphabetical by name. Whenever anybody qualifies the payouts sum to the pool exactly; if nobody does, nothing is paid.

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Stay active or lose units

§9

Go more than 14 days without a pick and you lose 2 units. Every 7 days after that doubles it, up to a ceiling:

  • 14 days quiet — −2.00U
  • 21 days quiet — −4.00U
  • 28 days quiet — −8.00U
  • every 7 days after that — −8.00U (it stops doubling; 8 is the cap)

The clock starts at the season opener, or on the day you paid if you joined later. The opening clock is three weeks: with no pick since the opener, the first −2.00U comes after 21 days, then −4.00U after 28, and so on. After that the clock is two weeks. Only picks you don't cancel reset the clock — and each one resets the ramp all the way back to the start. Lapse in October, pick again, and you don't carry a loaded meter into January. Your status shows a penalty as due until it's recorded; once it is, it lands on the standings as a real unit movement in the week it happened, like any other result.

This exists because the old rule was toothless. It only dimmed your row, which meant a leader could stop picking in the endgame and freeze a lead while everyone chasing had to keep taking variance. You're still never on the hook to play daily — you just can't disappear for free.

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Play a real season to cash

§10

Separate rule, different job. To collect a top-3 payout you must finish the season with at least 20 graded picks. Wins, losses, pushes and voids all count; cancelled picks never do.

Staying active and playing a real season aren't the same bar. Picking once every 14 days keeps you clear of the penalty but only adds up to about 13 picks across a 26-week season — under the floor. You don't take 80% of the pot off 13 picks. Under one pick a week clears it comfortably.

Your graded-pick count and activity status are always visible on My picks and your profile.

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Grace windows — when the clock pauses

§11

Part of the season doesn't have enough scheduled games to fairly run the clock. During that stretch it pauses — no units are lost, nobody goes inactive, and days spent inside the window don't count when the clock resumes. It pauses, it doesn't forgive: the days you were already up to carry over.

  • Wild Card weekend through the Super Bowl: the NFL narrows to a handful of games a week, and once the national championship is done in late January there is nothing else on. February is near-empty until the Super Bowl. With a full roster taking one pick a day there aren't enough games to go around, so charging anyone then would punish a thin schedule rather than sandbagging.

The 20-pick floor still applies — grace windows stop the clock, they don't hand out picks. Your status panel shows “Paused” when a window is active.

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The Guitar Pick

§12

The house ghost. Every day with a primetime NFL game (Sunday, Monday, Thursday or Saturday night — plus special standalone nights like the season opener and holiday games), the Guitar Pick automatically takes a side of its own — always the game with the closest spread, staking 1U to 3U, drawn nightly. Its picks grade like everyone else's and post to the feed, but it plays exhibition only: it never blocks a pick you want, never occupies your daily slot, and shows on the standings as an unranked exhibition row. Beat it or hear about it.

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The season

§13
  • A week runs Tuesday through Monday — Monday Night Football is the last day of the week.
  • The season covers August through February — bowls, playoffs, and the Super Bowl included.
  • Weekly standings reset each week; everything rolls up into the season total, and the podium pays on the season total.
  • Roster changes season to season. Historical picks stay tied to you forever.
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Buy-in and payment

§14

One $50 buy-in per season (the commissioner can adjust it per-season). Venmo Kyle Pawloski (@kyle-pawloski); your account unlocks for picks once payment is recorded. The pool is the sum of what was actually recorded — no IOUs, no side bets through the app.

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Disputes and edge cases

§15

Talk to the commissioner. They can regrade a game or void a pick. Every action is logged.

↑ Index